Identifying and estimating effects of sustained interventions under parallel trends assumptions.

Many research questions in public health and medicine concern sustained interventions in populations defined by substantive priorities. Existing methods to answer such questions typically require a measured covariate set sufficient to control confounding, which can be questionable in observational studies. Differences-in-differences rely instead on the parallel trends assumption, allowing for some types of time-invariant unmeasured confounding. However, most existing difference-in-differences implementations are limited to point treatments in restricted subpopulations. We derive identification results for population effects of sustained treatments under parallel trends assumptions. In particular, in settings where all individuals begin follow-up with exposure status consistent with the treatment plan of interest but may deviate at later times, a version of Robins' g-formula identifies the intervention-specific mean under stable unit treatment value assumption, positivity, and parallel trends. We develop consistent asymptotically normal estimators based on inverse-probability weighting, outcome regression, and a double robust estimator based on targeted maximum likelihood. Simulation studies confirm theoretical results and support the use of the proposed estimators at realistic sample sizes. As an example, the methods are used to estimate the effect of a hypothetical federal stay-at-home order on all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020 in the United States.

Infant rhesus macaques immunized against SARS-CoV-2 are protected against heterologous virus challenge one year later.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration only gave emergency-use-authorization of the BNT162b2 and the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for infants 6 months and older in June 2022. Yet, questions regarding the durability of vaccine efficacy, especially against emerging variants, in this age group remain. We demonstrated previously that a two-dose regimen of stabilized prefusion Washington SARS-CoV-2 S-2P spike (S) protein encoded by mRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles (mRNA-LNP) or purified S-2P mixed with 3 M-052, a synthetic toll-like receptor (TLR) 7/8 agonist, in a squalene emulsion (Protein+3 M-052-SE) was safe and immunogenic in infant rhesus macaques. Here, we demonstrate that broadly neutralizing and spike-binding antibodies against variants of concern (VOC), as well as T cell responses, persisted for 12 months. At one year, corresponding to human toddler age, we challenged vaccinated rhesus macaques and age-matched non-vaccinated controls intranasally and intratracheally with a high-dose of heterologous SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta). Seven of eight control rhesus macaques exhibited severe interstitial pneumonia and high virus replication in the upper and lower respiratory tract. In contrast, vaccinated rhesus macaques had faster viral clearance with mild to no pneumonia. Neutralizing and binding antibody responses to the B.1.617.2 variant at the day of challenge correlated with lung pathology and reduced virus replication. Overall, the Protein+3 M-052-SE vaccine provided superior protection to the mRNA-LNP vaccine, emphasizing opportunities for optimization of current vaccine platforms. Notably, the observed efficacy of both vaccines one year after vaccination supports the implementation of an early life SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Unique Molecular Identifiers and Multiplexing Amplicons Maximize the Utility of Deep Sequencing To Critically Assess Population Diversity in RNA Viruses.

Next generation sequencing (NGS)/deep sequencing has become an important tool in the study of viruses. The use of unique molecular identifiers (UMI) can overcome the limitations of PCR errors and PCR-mediated recombination and reveal the true sampling depth of a viral population being sequenced in an NGS experiment. This approach of enhanced sequence data represents an ideal tool to study both high and low abundance drug resistance mutations and more generally to explore the genetic structure of viral populations. Central to the use of the UMI/Primer ID approach is the creation of a template consensus sequence (TCS) for each genome sequenced. Here we describe a series of experiments to validate several aspects of the Multiplexed Primer ID (MPID) sequencing approach using the MiSeq platform. We have evaluated how multiplexing of cDNA synthesis and amplicons affects the sampling depth of the viral population for each individual cDNA and amplicon to understand the relationship between broader genome coverage versus maximal sequencing depth. We have validated reproducibility of the MPID assay in the detection of minority mutations in viral genomes. We have also examined the determinants that allow sequencing reads of PCR recombinants to contaminate the final TCS data set and show how such contamination can be limited. Finally, we provide several examples where we have applied MPID to analyze features of minority variants and describe limits on their detection in viral populations of HIV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 to demonstrate the generalizable utility of this approach with any RNA virus.

Infectious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Virus in Symptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outpatients: Host, Disease, and Viral Correlates.

BACKGROUND: Although severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infectious virus isolation in outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been associated with viral RNA levels and symptom duration, little is known about the host, disease, and viral determinants of infectious virus detection. METHODS: COVID-19 adult outpatients were enrolled within 7 days of symptom onset. Clinical symptoms were recorded via patient diary. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected to quantitate SARS-CoV-2 RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and for infectious virus isolation in Vero E6-cells. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured in serum using a validated ELISA assay. RESULTS: Among 204 participants with mild-to-moderate symptomatic COVID-19, the median nasopharyngeal viral RNA was 6.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 4.7-7.6 log10 copies/mL), and 26% had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (immunoglobulin (Ig)A, IgM, IgG, and/or total Ig) at baseline. Infectious virus was recovered in 7% of participants with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies compared to 58% of participants without antibodies (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .04, .36; P = .00016). Infectious virus isolation was also associated with higher levels of viral RNA (mean RNA difference +2.6 log10, 95% CI: 2.2, 3.0; P < .0001) and fewer days since symptom onset (PR = 0.79, 95% CI: .71, .88 per day; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is strongly associated with clearance of infectious virus. Seropositivity and viral RNA levels are likely more reliable markers of infectious virus clearance than subjective measure of COVID-19 symptom duration. Virus-targeted treatment and prevention strategies should be administered as early as possible and ideally before seroconversion. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04405570.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines elicit durable immune responses in infant rhesus macaques.

The inclusion of infants in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll-out is important to prevent severe complications of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections and to limit transmission and could possibly be implemented via the global pediatric vaccine schedule. However, age-dependent differences in immune function require careful evaluation of novel vaccines in the pediatric population. Toward this goal, we assessed the safety and immunogenicity of two SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Two groups of 8 infant rhesus macaques (RMs) were immunized intramuscularly at weeks 0 and 4 with stabilized prefusion SARS-CoV-2 S-2P spike (S) protein encoded by mRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles (mRNA-LNP) or the purified S protein mixed with 3M-052, a synthetic TLR7/8 agonist in a squalene emulsion (Protein+3M-052-SE). Neither vaccine induced adverse effects. Both vaccines elicited high magnitude IgG binding to RBD, N terminus domain, S1, and S2, ACE2 blocking activity, and high neutralizing antibody titers, all peaking at week 6. S-specific memory B cells were detected by week 4 and S-specific T cell responses were dominated by the production of IL-17, IFN-γ, or TNF-α. Antibody and cellular responses were stable through week 22. The immune responses for the mRNA-LNP vaccine were of a similar magnitude to those elicited by the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine in adults. The S-2P mRNA-LNP and Protein-3M-052-SE vaccines were well-tolerated and highly immunogenic in infant RMs, providing proof-of concept for a pediatric SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with the potential for durable immunity that might decrease the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and mitigate the ongoing health and socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19.

Group Testing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus 2 to Enable Rapid Scale-up of Testing and Real-Time Surveillance of Incidence.

High-throughput molecular testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may be enabled by group testing in which pools of specimens are screened, and individual specimens tested only after a pool tests positive. Several laboratories have recently published examples of pooling strategies applied to SARS-CoV-2 specimens, but overall guidance on efficient pooling strategies is lacking. Therefore we developed a model of the efficiency and accuracy of specimen pooling algorithms based on available data on SAR-CoV-2 viral dynamics. For a fixed number of tests, we estimate that programs using group testing could screen 2-20 times as many specimens compared with individual testing, increase the total number of true positive infections identified, and improve the positive predictive value of results. We compare outcomes that may be expected in different testing situations and provide general recommendations for group testing implementation. A free, publicly-available Web calculator is provided to help inform laboratory decisions on SARS-CoV-2 pooling algorithms.